Turkey, Azerbaijan propose staged resolution to Karabakh dispute, but Armenia isn't interested

Azerbaijan's Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov

Turkey and Azerbaijan have proposed a multi-stage plan for the settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but Armenia isn't impressed.

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war over the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which ended with a ceasefire in 1994. The Armenian-majority area, located within Azerbaijan territory, has been occupied by Armenian armed forces ever since.

While internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory, the enclave has declared itself an independent republic, but is administered as a de facto part of Armenia. Since 1994, negotiations have been held under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk Group, which is co-chaired by France, Russia and the US.

Azerbaijani deputy foreign minister Araz Azimov discussed the plan during a trip to Ankara last week, and gave details to Turkey's Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review newspaper. His visit preceded an expected trip this week by Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Moscow.

According to Hürriyet, the plan is based on trying to bring normality to Armenia in its relationship with Turkey and Azerbaijan. The Baku-Ankara plan involves a staged withdrawl process. Under the plan, Armenia would start by removing troops from five of the eight disputed territories: Akdam, Fuzuli, Cebrail, Zengilan and Kubatli. At this stage the Armenia-Azerbaijan border would open. The border between Armenia and Turkey, which has been closed since 1993, would also likely open at this stage.

"Relations [between Azerbaijan and Armenia] should be normalized, international forces should come in, guarantees should be given and rehabilitation should start," Azimov said.

This stage would last five years, after which Armenia would withdraw from the remaining regions of Lachine, Kelbecer and Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenia population of Karabakh would be provided with security guarantees and preparations for the return of Azerbaijanis to Nagorno-Karabakh would start.

This would pave the way for economic cooperation, although Azimov admits the determining a timeline will be difficult.

Armenia has not reacted favourably to the plan, however. A spokeman for the Armenia Foreign Minister, Tigran Balayan, commented on Azimov's interview with Hürriyet by saying, "Turkey has nothing to do in the Karabakh conflict resolution. If Turkey wishes not to damage the peace process, it should not interfere in the Karabakh conflict settlement."

"Mr. Azimov's scenario for the Karabakh conflict resolution is a figment of his imagination," Balayan emphasized to Armenia's News.am.

Meanwhile, further disputes on the ground are complicating the negotiating process. An Azerbaijani boy was shot and killed on 8th March by Armenian sniper fire. Fariz Badalov was playing outside his house in the village of Orta Garvand, close to the contact line separating Armenian and Azerbaijani troops.

Soon after the incident, the Minsk Group co-chairs announced their intention to visit the region. They condemned the loss of life and urged all sides to exercise restraint and fulfil their obligations undertaken in Sochi earlier this month to seek to resolve all contentious issues peacefully, according a press release from the OSCE.

OSCE representatives have, this week, visited Azerbaijan. The OSCE chairman-in-office, Lithuania's Foreign Minister Audronius Azubalis held talks with Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and President Ilham Aliyev in Baku on Monday 14th March.

Robert Bradtke of the US, Bernard Fassier of France and Igor Popov of Russia met Mammadyarov on Tuesday 15th March, according to Azerbaijani media sources. They discussed the current state of negotiations to resolve the Karabakh conflict. It is not clear whether they discussed the Ankara-Baku planned mooted by Azimov.

Sources: Hürriyet, OSCE, News.am, News.az

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Medvedev talks borders in Azerbaijan

Azeri President Aliyev with Russian President Medvedev in 2009

Russian and Azerbeijan took one step closer to resolving their border issues when Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilkham Aliyev signed a border agreement to delimitate part of the land border between the two nations on Medvedev's trip to Baku on 2nd September. The two also signed an agreement on the use of water resources from the trans-border Samur river, and Russian energy giant Gazprom and Azerbaijan's state oil and gas company SOCAR signed a deal to increase supplies of Azerbaijani gas to Russia in 2011-2012.

To welcome the Russian leader, Azerbaijan raised a massive version of its national flag in Baku on 1st September. Baku claimed it was the world's largest flag, with dimensions of 70 meters by 35 meters and weighing in at a massive 350kg.

Aliyev presided over the unveiling of the flag and told the crowd, "Our flag is our pride and our soul… It will fly over Karabakh, Khankendi, and Shusha. And we all should work hard to bring this day closer and we are doing it. Long live Azerbaijan!"

This comment highlights the current tension that exists between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, which was a key talking point during Medvedev's visit.

The Nagorno-Karabakh enclave is an Armenian-majority area in southwestern Azerbaijan. The two nations fought a war over the area from 1988 until 1994, which started when the Parliament of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast voted to secede from Azerbaijan and join Armenia in February 1988. By the time the war ended in 1994, Armeria occupied most of the disputed territory, as well as Azeri territory outside of the enclave, 30, 000 people had died and nearly 1 million refugees had fled, mostly to temporary settlement camps in Azerbaijan.

Violence has continued around the border regions, however, and on 1st September, it was announced that three Armenians and two Azerbaijani soldiers had been killed in clashes near the enclave.

Cesur Sumerinli, the chief editori of the Azerbaijani military-analysis website mil.az, recently said that the cease-fire is being violated more frequently, and that the resumption of military operations in the near future was possible.

The original cease-fire was Russian-brokered, and Russia has continued to be involved in mediation efforts since. In June 2010, Aliyev and his Armenian counterpark Serzh Sarkisian met for bilateral talks hosted by Medvedev in St. Petersburg. It appears however, that tension has been increasingly since the June meeting, and skirmishes have been frequent.

As co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, together with France and the US, Russia has been at the centre of the international efforts. Russia's involvement, however, is not unproblematic. Medvedev visited Yerevan, Armenia, just weeks before his trip to Baku, where he extended the lease on a military base in Armenia. Amendments to a 1995 bilateral defense treaty signalled an increased Russian presence in Armenia, as it was agreed that the 4,000 Russian troops stationed in Armenia will not only protect Russian interests, but also the security of Armenia. This was interpretted by many as a pledge of Russian support should tensions over the disputed enclave result in full-fledged war, although Medvedev has been clear that he supports resolution through direct talks.

Oil-rich Azerbaijan is also an important neighbour for Russia, and Medvedev called them a 'strategic partner'. Recent rumours of a Russian sale of antiaircraft missiles to Azerbaijan have been denied by the Russians, although military cooperation was discussed during Medvedev's visit, and the sale of four Russian Ka-32 helicopters was announced some time ago.

Sources: RFE/RL, Hurriyet Turkey, Georgian Daily