Protests as Turkey erects border wall

On Thursday, thousands of Kurds protested against the construction of a wall separating the border towns of Nusaybin, on the Turkish side, and Al Qamishli, on the Syrian side, by Turkish authorities. The protesters have temporarily put a stop to preparatory building work while their grievances, concerning the division of their community, are aired. The demonstration has complicated the ongoing peace process with the Kurdistan Workers Party as the conflict in Syria has spilled over into neighbouring countries.

The protest in Nusaybin, organised by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party, was tolerated by Turkish police for most of the day, however, riot police later deployed tear gas as a sit-in got underway in the early evening, dispersing the majority of the crowd. BDP leader Selahattin Demirtas accused Turkey of siding with radical Islamist rebels against Kurdish groups seeking their own autonomous state in Syria, suggesting that the government desired to divide Syrian Kurds from their ethnic counterparts north of the border.

Ankara has justified the two-metre high wall on the grounds of “security”, arguing that it will prevent smuggling and the free movement of rebel fighters across the border, while denying its sponsorship of extremist groups and the existence of any sectarian agenda. Despite this denial, many residents living on the frontier zone joined in the protest, as they felt the wall would have an adverse effect on visiting family and friends living on both sides of the border. Questioning the Turkish government's explanation, Nusaybin's Mayor, Ayse Gökkan, asked: “Why do they not build walls further west, where rebel fighters and Al-Qaeda are allowed to cross the border freely?” Gökkan has since taken part in a hunger strike.

Turkey has absorbed close to half a million refugees from the conflict on its doorstep and continues to maintain its open-door policy to those fleeing the violence. The wall, seen as a temporary security measure, is set to span only a tiny section of the 560 mile border.

Turkey to begin drilling off northern Cyprus

Turkey's TPAO has said that it will begin drilling off the coast of Turkish Cyprus “within days”, raising the stakes in the eastern Mediterranean energy game.

The chairman and president of the Turkish state energy company Mehmet Uysaltold Reuters that TPAO had started moving equipment there and would start shortly. Echoing the Turkish government's line, he also said that he would “take all measures” to protect the drilling if it took place in an area disputed by the Republic of Cyprus.

The company has not formally announced the location of its first drilling operations. The areas under contract between TPAO and the Turkish Cypriots cover a major area around the island, including areas to the south of the island which are within commonly accepted Greek Cypriot borders. For its first round of exploratory work, TPAO is unlikely to deploy anywhere too risky or controversial, and is likely to work off the northern coast.

However the company is undoubtedly serious when it says that “all measures” will be taken to defend its operations. The Turkish government has repeatedly expressed its willingness to deploy naval assets in its dispute with the Republic of Cyprus. When seismic vessels began exploring the area last year, in response to Cyprus's decision to allow Noble Energy to prospect for gas and oil, Turkish warships were reportedly shadowing the research ships.

The tensions between Israel and Cyprus on the one hand and Turkish Cyprus and Turkey on the other, have increased lately. Recently it was announced that Israel may be planning a military base in Cyprus; a Turkish minister also provoked controversy by suggesting that Turkey should annex northern Cyprus.

If TPAO strikes it lucky off the Cypriot coast these tensions are likely to increase further. Although it is likely that the company will restrict its activities to waters off Cyprus's north coast, there is no guarantee that the situation will not change in future.

Sources: Rigzone, Reuters, TPAO

Cyprus pledges to share oil resources in bid to cool tensions

In an attempt to defuse an increasingly tense stand-off in the eastern Mediterranean, Cypriot President Demetris Christofias has promised to share the proceeds of any oil found offshore with the island's Turkish Cypriot community.

Christofias insisted that a peace treaty between the EU-member Greek south and the largely unrecognised Turkish north of Cyprus had to be found, but that “even before a settlement we shall find a way to use revenues to the benefit of both communities”. He stated that the discovery of offshore oil and gas would be another incentive for the two sides to find a peaceful solution to their long-running dispute.

The Cypriot move appears to be a limited concession to the Turkish Cypriots, who this week signed a deal with their patron in Turkey to jointly explore the sea off the island's northern coastline. The agreement was a response to Cyprus's own decision to start drilling offshore, a move which Ankara denounced as a provocation which infringed the rights of the Turkish Cypriots. Turkey has also threatened to blacklist any energy firms which cooperate with the Greek Cypriots.

On 23rd September Turkey dispatched a seismic exploration ship to the waters off northern Cyprus. Three warships were dispatched to the area on 21st September and Turkish officials have warned that they will escort exploration vessels as required, although there is no suggestion that the Cypriots would seek a military confrontation. Nonetheless Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz has said he does not expect the region to heat up.

Working with the Greek Cypriots, US firm Noble Energy began drilling to the south of Cyprus earlier this week. They are expecting to find large gas deposits near the maritime border with Israel. Noble has recently discovered a series of major gas fields in Israeli waters, and Cyprus has expressed interest in energy cooperation with Israel, including the development of undersea pipelines. A separate deterioration in Turkish-Israeli relations has contributed to the tensions in the area.

It is unclear whether Christofias's suggestion of sharing revenues is entirely realistic: it may simply be an attempt to reduce the antagonistic atmosphere in the eastern Mediterranean, but it seems unlikely that Turkey will back down on its exploration with the Turkish Cypriots. Joint exploration and drilling would help to calm Turkey and encourage progress on a peace deal, but whether the political will exists to do so is another matter.

Sources; Hürriyet, Reuters, Today's Zaman

Turkey, Israel, and Greece weigh in on Cyprus drilling plans

The rapidly shifting politics of the eastern Mediterranean have become even more complex in recent days, as Turkey has warned Cyprus to avoid exploratory drilling off the coast - work which would be undertaken with Israel, fast becoming Turkey’s regional rival.

Greek-speaking Cyprus is pledging to press ahead with plans to begin exploring its offshore resources, despite a lack of agreement on the exact maritime boundary with Turkish-speaking Northern Cyprus, which is only recognised by Turkey. EU member Cyprus has turned to Israel for support: the two countries demarcated their maritime boundary in December 2010, and both have contracted Noble Energy to explore the offshore deposits along their mutual border.

Turkey has responded angrily, warning against “adventurist policies” by Cyprus and threatening to agree a maritime border with Turkish Cyprus, which would enable them to pursue oil and gas exploration but would also stoke tensions with other regional players. Speaking on 8th September, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Turkey, "as a guarantor of the Turkish republic of north Cyprus, has taken steps in the area, and it will be decisive and holding fast to the right to monitor international waters in the east Mediterranean”.

Greece has also weighed in to back Cyprus – it is also likely to have been the driving force behind an EU statement on 9th September that warned Turkey to refrain from threats.

Turkey has no relations with Cyprus, and once-warm ties with Israel have plummeted to a new low, with Ankara repeatedly threatening to deploy warships into the eastern Mediterranean. Along with an increasingly tense dispute between Israel and Lebanon over their maritime boundary (and the gas fields in the border area), the situation in the eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly fraught and tangled. Indeed, rumours have circled that Cyprus is planning to keep its military on alert during offshore drilling.

The next steps are not clear. Turkey’s recent bullish behaviour is mainly directed at Israel, but the connection between Cyprus and Israel over developing gas fields is widening the dispute significantly. Ankara’s sudden insistence on joint exploration with Turkish Cyprus seems partly a rhetorical move: to date, Turkey has shown little passion for prospecting in the area.

Given Ankara’s deteriorating relationship with Tel Aviv, however, and Erdoğan’s fiery assertiveness in the foreign arena, it is plausible that Turkey will actively work to bar Cyprus from drilling in the Mediterranean and start working with the Turkish Cypriots to start exploring energy resources offshore. This could set the stage for an increasingly tense and complex regional situation.

Sources: Reuters, Hürriyet, Bloomberg

Lebanon-Israel boundary dispute goes to UN, while Turkey boosts regional naval presence

On 5th September Lebanon filed a formal complaint with the UN over its maritime dispute with Israel, warning that the Israeli proposal for the border line “puts international peace and security at risk” and urging the UN “to take all necessary measures to avoid conflict."

The Foreign Ministry in Beirut has sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon rejecting the northern boundaries of Israel's claim, which was submitted to the UN in July. Some weeks earlier, the Lebanese parliament approved a draft law which demarcates the country's maritime borders, following a formal proposal to the UN last year.

Lebanon's case is that over 860 km2 of its exclusive economic zone, in which a state has 'sovereign rights' over marine resources, is infringed by the Israeli claim. The area in question contains significant quantities of oil and gas, and US-listed explorer Noble Energy has already begun developing large gas fields in the Israeli sector of the Mediterranean.

Lebanon's decision to file a formal complaint raises the stakes further, although by moving the ball into the UN's court it maycommit both parties to arbitration and reduce the risk of conflict. Pursuing the case through arbitration would also help to marginalise the Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah, which has threatened reprisals if Israel begins drilling in disputed waters.

There have been further signs of tension in the Levant over the past few days, however. On 4th September, Lebanon accused Israeli jets of violating its airspace: a common enough refrain over the past few years, but one which takes on additional significance when relations between the two sides, still technically at war, are so strained.

The collapse in the Turkey-Israel relationship is also adding to tensions in the Levant. On 2nd September the Israeli ambassador in Ankara was expelled after Israel again refused to apologise for the Gaza flotilla raid in May 2010, in which nine Turkish citizens were killed.

On 6th September Turkey's blunt-talking Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, announced that all remaining ties with Israel would be cut, and Turkish warships “will be seen more frequently” in the eastern Mediterranean. Erdogan has cast himself as the champion of the Arab world, and a greater naval presence could tempt Turkey into intervening in the Israel-Lebanon spat. Given the disputed nature of the region's maritime borders, the chances for accusations and miscalculations are likely to increase even further.

Sources: AFP, Daily Star, Reuters